COVID-19 update 18 October 2021 4pm

Kia ora koutou katoa.

Good afternoon.

Today I will set out Cabinet's decisions on alert levels in Auckland, Northland and the Waikato as well as signal moments for the rest of the week.

First of all I want to say something briefly about Super Saturday.

We all know what it meant for vaccine numbers - 130,000 people vaccinated in one day is enormous.

It was a tribute to the health staff, to the people who have been working tirelessly alongside them for months, community organisations who work so hard to support people to be there, the business community who promoted the day and provided every reason and incentive possible to be vaccinated.

The biggest success of Super Saturday alongside the lives saved is that it remended us all, we are still a team.

That through this really hard few months if we have a job to do, we will rally to do it.

Today we are making decisions that are based on the hear and now.

Alert level decisions that are based on case numbers and what we can do safely, and this has been primarily affecting Auckland, but also now the Waikato and Northland.

We know that in the future we cannot ask people to live week by week, not knowing when things will change or how to help things speed up.

We know that needs to change and we have a plan on how.

While the announcements today will be about the next few week, on Friday we will provide the detail around the system we will use to protect ourselves in a highly vaccinated environment.

We will give details on how we will move into that new system and what will help us get there.

On Tuesday, I will be joined by Minister Henaray to talk about the works we are doing to help the vaccination rates in our Maori community.

These works are critical.

On Wednesday, minister Hipkins will give us the up to date advice on schools reopening, and on Friday, as I said, we will release the details of the new COVID protection framework and how we will get there.

But for now let's come to the alert level decisions.

Today cabinet has confirmed that New Zealand, outside of those areas with level three restrictions, will remain at alert level 2.

I will come then to the decisions for Northland t Waikato and then Auckland.

Let's start with Northland.

With more than 16,000 tests undertaken since the first positive test, and testing across 19 waste water sites all returning negative result, all the evidence to date suggests the individuals who tested positive in Northland have not spread it further.

I would, however, always ask anyone with symptoms to get a test and anyone still waiting to get a vaccination.

On this basis, and on the advice of the Director General of Health, Northland will move to alert level 2 at 11:59pm on Tuesday 19 October.

For the Waikato the situation is different.

While the cases remain broadly linked, this linking is often occurring after the positive results are being returned.

I acknowledge the testing more than 45,000 and vaccination efforts of those in the region beyond this - during this period, but as you will have seen, there are been further cases and some positive waste water testing in the greater area, so we need to act with cautious at the moment.

That is why cabinet has decided to hold the Waikato at level 3.

We will review these settings and update any change in position on Friday.

And now to Auckland.

Today is Day 62 of alert level 4, or 3 number Tumakitakoto.

That is a long time to be living with restrictions but those restrictions have made a huge different.

They have helped us to keep case numbers as low as possible while we continue to vaccinate people, and vaccinations continue to be so important, not just in the future but right now.

Only 4% of cases in this outbreak were people who were fully vaccinated and of the 158 who needed hospital care, only three were fully vaccinated.

But we need to keep going, with both tools - our restrictions and vaccinations - because with Delta we cannot rely on just one.

If we get this right, if we keep case numbers low while we vaccinate people, then it makes it easier for us to keep control of COVID while we ease restrictions in the future, and that is everyone's goal.

So the question for cabinet today has been how do we avoid a spike in case numbers and hospitalisations, and protect vulnerable communities as much as possible in the coming weeks while we keep lifting vaccination numbers/

First, it is important to remember that the alert level 3 rules in Auckland are currently the toughest restrictions in place anywhere in the OECD at the moment, according to the Oxford Stringency Index.

These are not soft rules.

Despite that, a number of respected scientists and epidemiologists have suggested a return to level 4 for a defined 2-week lockdown to act as a circuit breaker and limit the number of cases while our vaccinations take hold and strengthen our immunity.

However, the public health advice, including from teams on the ground, and from Dr Ashley Bloomfield, is that with more weeks at level four is unlikely at this stage to reduce the number of cases significantly, because of the nature of the outbreak and the fact that compliance has been an issue.

We considered both sets of advice carefully.

Cabinet has to take into account a range of factors, including the overall wellbeing of Aucklanders and how hard this period has been, but the consideration that stood out for us the most was the view amongst those close toast the outbreak that this increase in restrictions would not necessarily reduce cases significantly more than the level three restrictions we already have.

So the next question is what can we do at level 3 to minimise cases as much as possible/

The first thing cabinet has decided is that Auckland will remain at alert level 3, and with the current restrictions already in place.

And, that we will do that for the next two weeks.

Based on the advice we have, any interim easing of level 3 restrictions over the coming weeks will not work towards our plan of minimising cases while we increase vaccinations.

But the biggest thing that will make a difference right now, alongside vaccines, is asking that everyone continue to comply with the restrictions that are already there.

In particular, the alert level rules around indoor gatherings.

They are not allowed.

They are a risk to you and those around you and they are one of the most significant causes of ongoing spread in this outbreak.

And no-one is in an area where the rules don't apply.

We now have cases in 124 suburbs.

They are across the entire geographical spread of Auckland.

That means everyone, especially those who are unvaccinated, continue to be at risk of getting the virus, regardless of what suburb you live in.

A reminder on the rules at level 3.

They are there to help us for this critical phase.

Please stick to your household bubble.

The only social catch ups that are allowed have to take place outdoors, because the natural ventilation and fresh air reduces the risk of passing on the virus.

We ask that you be masked and distanced with no more than ten people from two households at any one time.

Indoor gatherings, parties, social, they are not part of level 3 an it is one of the things we we cannot afford to let slip.

I know this is hard and I want to acknowledge the ongoing impact in particular of Auckland business of staying at level 3.

We have heard from the business community for additional support given the extended period of restrictions.

Minister Robertson is currently working on an enhanced business support package for Auckland and will be in a position to share more of the details of this on Friday.

Finally, a quick preview to the announcements on Friday.

When we come to outlying the new COVID protection framework, we will establish a vaccination target or, as Dr Bloomfield calls it, a milestone for Auckland and New Zealand in order to move into that framework, and to start easing restrictions.

The target will be high to give us the greatest confidence possible.

We have looked closely at the evidence overseas and what works and what doesn't and we will be aligning our target with those countries that have managed the transition from restrictions to vaccination in the safest way possible.

But regardless, we hope that this will give Aucklanders, especially, as much certainty as possible about what lies ahead and importantly a goal that we can all rally behind.

So in summary, our plan is as follows: Auckland will stay at level 3 with no further changes to the level three settings at this stage.

This is the best way to continue to suppress and minimise cases while we work towards high rates of vaccination.

These settings will remain until two week.

On Friday we will set out the new protection framework, a plan to continue to protect New Zealanders from the virus and it will include a vaccination target to meet before moving into that framework.

I have one final message.

On super Saturday we saw what was possible.

The vaccine is all about opening up opportunities and easing restrictions.

J ust as we smashed our target of 100,000 vaccines on Saturday, we know that when we set a goal we can reach it.

We are making great steps forward and there is a way through.

New Zealand can be one of the few countries in the world to get to high rates of vaccination without the human and economic carnage it has inflicted on so many other countries.

It is possible and I know we can do it.

I am happy to take questions.

>> What was the target/

>> We will sharing those details on Friday.

>> You already know, though, so why not.

>> We are continuing to work, refining some of the details of both the framework and the way the target will work and that is why we will release it on Friday.

>> When you know the vaccine numbers now and how they are likely to roll out over the next couple of week, do you think that we will move to a loosening of restrictions in a few weeks time/

>> Our view was to set out as much as we could the path for the next two weeks based on what we see now and our ongoing job to just continue to keep this outbreak in check while we continue to vaccinate, the advice was to hold where we are.

Again, we won't rule out future changes after that point, but what we know Auckland needs is a long-term plan and that is what we will be setting out on Friday.

>> Is the target 59%/

>> We will not be giving the target today.

Look, I think it it was only fair to tell Auckland that will be one so that we know the way we will be working with the new framework.

But I don't want to waste everyone's in this room time by fishing for it at this point.

>> 95%.

>> Did you want to ask a question/

>> If you set a target of 95% today it might actually incentivise people to push up/

>> I think we have seen the situation in Auckland, including the outbreak, as well as support and campaigns from the media and others to get those vaccination rates up as high as possible have really paid dividends, and we can see Auckland is getting close to what is a very important milestone of 90% and the reason I call it a "milestone" is we are not stopping there.

Every percentage point above 90 really matters.

We are going to keep the effort going.

>> Keep in mind as well, for the most part we see those who get one vaccine go and get their second but actually there tends to be about a 5% difference between the two.

So that is why we need to keep going.

Is it not enough just to say, you have hit one milestone and you stop.

We do need to keep going.

I will come to you and then come over to Jane and Jason.

>> How does was the call around the circuit breaker and can you give us a little bit more information on why the public health officials don't think a circuit breaker would have a significant impact.

>> I will let Dr Bloomfield speak to that himself.

We have always listened to all of the advice that has been available to us, both from our scientific community, epidemiologists and our public health experts.

The strong advice that came through to us from public health on the ground was that knowing what they know about the outbreak as it stands, their view was that level 4 would not necessarily make a significant difference to the cases that we have in this current outbreak.

And that is because of what they know in a detailed way about where the outbreak has occurred.

And whether or not an increase on restrictions would necessarily stop the kind of activity that has led to a flow on of cases.

However, level 3, if followed, actually would make a difference and will continue to make a difference.

That is why that strong message to Aucklander, you have done an amazing job, I know it has been hard, but please stick it while we vaccinate, we need ongoing compliance.

>> That compliance is an issue, what makes you think that Aucklanders are going to be any more responsive to following the rules at the moment when we are seeing pretty - you know, some pretty widespread incidents and how critical is it for them if we are going to stay for another two weeks/

>> I think the important point for us to know, we are seeing, as I said, that the household, that households mixing with others, indoors or at a larger scale, is one of the contributing factors to the outbreak.

We also know that we have had an outbreak in parts of the community where life is particularly tough some we have talked before about transitional housing and so on.

So for us it is about continuing to highlight where we know restrictions will make a difference, please stick with them.

We don't just make them up.

They are based on evidence and the advice of public health and where we do say it is possible to mingle with others outside, that is because the advice is that that is safe.

So it is all based on strong guidance.

>> I don't know if it is anecdotal and I don't know whether this is what you were referring to in your opening remarks about it doesn't matter where you live in Auckland, you have vulnerable.

We are hearing that in some of the wealthier suburbs there is quite a high level of noncompliance.

This is not scientific, it is anecdotal.

Is that what you are talking about/

>> I have picked up a sense that some people think this is an outbreak in just certain parts of Auckland and that is not true.

It is absolutely not true.

We have cases across the entire geographical areas of Auckland.

Basically any suburb you can name we probably have a person or a household that has been affected.

So no-one should say, or think, that they can act differently just because they are in a particular part of Auckland it is not the case.

>> Is that become a feature of it or.

>> I have sensed that, and that would be wrong.

So that is why I found it necessary just to highlight that that is not correct, it is an assumption that is absolutely wrong.

>> >> I will let again that come in and then I will come across to Jason.

>> Have you seen the footage of the party that happened on the North Shore over the weekend.

>> I have not seen the footage.

I have had it described to me, the description was enough.

>> What would you say to those people involved in that party/

>> That clearly it was a blatant breach of the rules.

Clearly.

And I think you have seen the reaction of Aucklanders to what has happened there.

>> Do they have a different approach to compliance through the police/

I know more often they are guided by about, when we were talking about it last year, but is there a point at which the police will take a tougher stance on I suppose these more domestic situations or blatant breaches that appear on social media, it is obviously infuriating a lot of people/

>> And you can absolutely understand why.

Police have though, as I understand, confirmed that an investigation is under way in response to that particular event and to the reported breach of COVID-19 restrictions.

There.

That is where we will let the police do their jobs.

There were calls to that address, they are following through on that and they are investigating what happened there.

No one can just assume you can break the rules and there won't be a consequence for that.

>> The police approach and the enforcement approach part of this, as part of this compliance issue and as we go forward I mean people are more resistant, the knowledge that few you are going to do it blatantly you are going to face consequences.

>> One of things, because we have looked around the world where you have had periods of long periods of time where people have been in restrictions and I think we talked about this last week.

The looking at Australia who had the same restriction for a very long period and you see at a tipping point at a particular time when cases just balloon.

A lot of decisions that we made about people meeting outside if you are going to break the rules you are going to try to do that in a hidden way without drawing at ten this unto yourself, and that is likely to be inside, and that is the most dangerous people for people to break rules.

That is why we said this is a safe way for you to have social contact to help you continue with what are pretty tough restriction, but that means we are asking you do not congregate inside with others.

We have given you a safe way where you can be seen to be complying, and where people can see you are just doing the right thing outside.

Please don't go inside and continue that kind of congregation.

That is the risk and we have seen it in this outside break.

>> Jason.

>> Just on the back to the traffic light system, it seems like this is quite a strong incentive, or whatever the season might be.

This seems light it would be quite an effective way of getting the vaccine rates up.

Why isn't this something that the government did a number of weeks ago in a bid to try to boost those vaccination numbers quicker/

>> We have been working on the framework for a number of weeks.

It is something that you have seen, based on I think everybody's reporting, that it is something we have been consulting people on and we have had the ability to do that, because it uses vaccine certificates.

So in order for those to be used of course you have to have reasonable levels of vaccination and we also have to have the vaccination certificate regime in place.

But I think framework itself will also be an incentive because it uses vaccine certificates as well.

So people will be able to see that and have time to adapt and get ready for.

>> Will has been a lot of reporting about it being a traffic light system.

Can you confirm that is on its way/

>> Yeah, you have obviously covered and we have talked - well, we have talked in consultation with people around the system, and so, yes, that is the way that people have described it.

I think you will hear me using a COVID protection framework because it is still about protecting people from COVID and that is what it is designed to do.

>> Sorry, I will come to the front and Derek.

>> Do you have a projection based on bookings where Auckland's vaccination rate will be in two weeks time/

>>In two weeks time/

>> We have the current, what the bookings in its totality will take us to.

I don't know if it is broken down by Auckland.

>> The expectation is our team is modelling out that Auckland increases on a daily basis and then carrying those forward.

So sooner on later this week we are hoping, sooner, Auckland will hit that 90% milestone for first vaccinations and then you would imagine between three and four weeks after that overall 40%, that is for the whole of Auckland region.

>> Do you have a projection for the double dose will be in two weeks time/

>> No, but we could have a look at.

That I imagine, I think at the moment they are over 70%, so it imagine it be well in excess of 80%.

>> Double dose is at 71.

Do you want it on bookings or projections/

>> On bookings.

Because.

>> Books are not a great forecasting mechanism for us any more.

>> Over the last few weeks most of the vaccinations have been each day, in Auckland and elsewhere, have been walk ins.

There is a lot of capacity in the system N two weeks time I would fully expect it would be between 80 and 85% of Aucklanders overall would be double dosed.

>> Based on that, Prime Minister, if the current cases trajectory, continues as it is you would think in two weeks time Auckland you would be prepared to move to level 2 >> What we have said is we will continue to, at that point, look at, as we said, those stepping down - that stepping down frail work, we will continue to use that in the meantime.

So we will keep making a judgment about whether we can safely continue to step down.

>> Just on multi vaccination rate, are you happy with the way that collaboration has gone on two (inaudible) who crowd funded $100,000 on the weekend that seemed to be something that the minister spoke about last week and they said it was needed.

>> Absolutely.

>> And (inaudible) who says it is just really difficult to actually share information and resource with the department and that has been part of the problem in terms of the low general rate and a low inaudible now.

Are you concerned at how fair some of this collaboration and community occasion is and the affect that it is having on a multi vaccinate rate.

>> I will just make a comment and then I want to say something about (inaudible) if I can.

Over two to three week, after seeing feedback that there might be barriers for our Maori providers we wanted to cut through that as quickly.

We brought together DHBs and Maori providers across the DHBs where we knew they were working really hard to lift those rates.

Ministers were a part of those calls and so was I.

As a consequence of that we made some commitments to try to change the way we were working on some elements of fund, data share, a range of things that we thought would support vaccination roll-out.

Subsequent to that, we have the Minister out on the road and that is why I want to bring him him tomorrow to talk about what work we are doing.

We need to remove any barrier that might exist, to enable our providers, whether whether or not they are health providers or whether they can help us drive command, so they can drive up the vaccinate rates.

Everyone is committed to doing that it is just how we get there.

On (inaudible) I saw the report, someone sent me the Give a Little page, and no one, not one region in a country should have to rely on a fundraiser campaign for something that we are working hard to support.

We put in additional money to support multi vaccinate rates I know in (inaudible) they have they have a mobile vaccination clink they were using when I was there.

For me it just a question of getting the resource in the right place.

So we have got Ministers working on that as we speak because no- one, there is no need to fund raise to get this vaccination campaign going.

We just need to make sure that the resource is in the right place.

>> I think it is about 80 million now, across the two tranches that.

>> I want to say 87.

>> Do you know roughly how much of that.

>> I will get the minister to speak to some of that tomorrow if I may, because my intent there was to get him to talk in a little more detail about what he is observing and what we can do.

>> Not that the money is not there but.

>> In some areas the relationship with the DHBs and the movement of those funding between the DHBs and others has been great but in others.

>> When you look at around (inaudible) it is very clear there are gaps there that do not affect the rest of the country.

Why is the ministry not coordinating better, if you can't relate on the DHB not to get it done, why is the government and the ministry not coordinating better so that people don't have to go out and.

>> Yeah, well our absolute commitment is where there are gaps or people have difficulty accessing, that needs to change.

As I say, I have been in regions where they have had mobile vaccination clinics up and down the country.

It happens that on that particular day they weren't.

I would have expected that they would be.

So obviously there is work there to do.

>> Only the traffic light system, a large number of multi groups consulted on that over Friday, Saturday and Sunday and they released a statement saying they strongly reject the traffic light framework.

How much is that going to play into what is announced on Friday/

>> I guess I would say two things.

Firstly, yes, we are, absolutely out there consulting, talking to various different groups, leadership and Maori, Pacific community, church community, the business sector.

What I would say is that whilst we are sharing that framework we are not always at a point where we have concluded the way it will be implement and how we will do it safely.

My view is that once we talk more about system of that, that may satisfy some of the concerns that exist.

There may potentially be a view out there that we are fundamentally going to change our approach which is to work very hard to keep people safe from COVID.

We are not.

All of this, though, is about saying we said when we had a highly vaccinated population we would do things differently.

But safely.

And we will.

>> So how different is the version that the Maori group and the independent experts who viewed it last Thursday going to be dots do >> We will leave that to the date when it is released but I think one of the things that people are looking for is when will we start using it/

My message is when we have a highly vaccinated population.

I think that will make a big difference for people to hear that.

>> Can you go into whether there will be differences and access for vaccinated versus unvaccinated people.

>> Of course we will wait until we have released some of that framework.

But you have heard us say that we will use vaccination certificates.

>> Dr Bloomfield, just to follow up on Derek 's question, do you have any modelling own when Auckland will hit 90% double dose, if it will/

>> Yes.

>> When will that be/

>> It will be when 90% of people have had their second dose.

>> Are you forecasting for when that might be/

>> We would imagine that it will be between three and four weeks - at the moment our average interval between first and first dose is about 28 day, so right on four weeks.

It is probably coming down since we told people any time after three weeks.

And we are expecting that first dose to reach that 90% milestone.

I would say that is right across all of Auckland and we do look by district health board as well and there are differences between district health boards.

Talk lands is ahead of Waikato which is ahead of.

And it will variry a little bit.

>> Can you please describe, the Prime Minister said before that the advice you gave today was that level four lockdown probably wouldn't achieve some of the components of it.

Can you just describe to us what the tenor of your advice was around that/

>> Well, the first point I would make is that every time we do a public health risk assessment, for any alert level, we go in with an open mind and certainly with regards to Auckland's situation we went in considering what the full range of options that could be employed.

Secondly, we look then at a whole range of factors and I would say that our colleagues who are on the ground doing the public health response in Auckland and likewise for both Northland and buy cat toe, are involved in those public health assessments so we absolutely canvass their view about what we are seeing and whether or not they think that the current restrictions or tightening or loosen ing those restrict unions will support what they are trying to do.

We really are emphasising two things - people complying and continuing, as most Aucklanders are, to abide by those alert level three restrictions, and secondly really continuing the vaccination program apace with a big focus on Maori and Pacific.

That was their focus.

>> You have both talked about the noncompliance and that there is evidence of noncompliance within homes, people going to each other's places.

In what form - how has that information been coming to you, is that through the public health teams.

>> Yeah, the public health team.

So when they analyse exposure events and look through at, you know, as with the contact tracer they are getting exposure events and locations of interest and possible contacts and they are identifying that there are households getting together indoor, so outside of the restrictions which are contributing.

When they did a break down of the biggest contributing factor to new cases that was amongst the most signature.

Work sites was further down.

Again, I would reinforce, though, that this is not everyone and, you know, a large portion of Aucklanders have consistently been doing the right thing.

We are just asking that people stick with it, because we are reaching a point where it just gets harder because it is so long.

>> I did say Ben.

>> Just back on the Maori consultations, do you acknowledge there was a ground swell of support, at least a large amount of support for a return to level four, and in that growing sort of disconnect hundred between what the government is doing what many Maori want/

>> I have had a direct read out from that meeting because of course we had Maori ministers present there, and the feedback I received is that yes, there were some who were of the move move that a move to level four was necessary, but there were some, speak ing from within Tamaki Makaurau, said there was a different view.

So I think it is right to say there was a range of views in the dialogues.

You can see that we have tried to take all of it into account, all of those competing different views.

>> And acknowledge the climate announcement this morning.

I just thought I would ask when you will decide and announced the national contribution ahead of 'Copperfield' 26 and can you pre-empt -- COP26 and can you ed a pre-empt what that will be.

>> No, I am not able to give you a date at this time.

>> For New Zealand to up its target, up its ambushious.

>> We have always, we have already said, and you will see from the climate commission, we needed to ensure that our nationally determined contribution was in keeping with a 1.

5 degree target, because that is what we have embedded in our zero carbon act.

We asked the climate commission to give us advice, they said that we needed to increase and we are doing the work to see what that looks like.

>> That announcement should be imminent.

>> Yes, is it not too far away.

>> Does the government.

Jenna, I will come to you and then I am going to come to - I will get you get those out of the way and then come to Bernard.

>> Does the government intend to introduce another vaccine like fizzer, give then is a portion who don't want Pfizer, and do you plan to recognise Kiwi as vaccinated if they haved ha other convenients like AstraZeneca/

>> Yes, we will have New Zealanders who would have been abroad who will have been vaccinated by vaccines that we are purchasing or considered purchasing so we are looking at recognising those Kiwi's vaccination status in New Zealand.

On the issue of other vaccine, I might get Dr Bloomfield to speak to.

That >> Yes, we are still actively working up advice on an alternative for people who be willing to be vaccinated but have a particular concern about the mRNA vaccines and we are mealy w have nearly finalised that advice and once we have gone to the minister and decisions have been made I am sure an announcement will be made about that.

>> Prime Minister, will the vaccination threshold or milestone you talk about on Friday, will it ensure that the wait for young Maori vaccination rates to get up to the safe level of 90% plus/

>> I have indicated that we will have a milestone, as it were, an entry point, but I am not going to speak any further to that until all of those details are finalised and presented on Friday.

>> Not even to say it is an overall average or.

>> Because of course you will understand that we want to make numbers on that at one time on Friday.

It is only fair, given the issues that have been raised with some of the experts we are consulting, and we have been talking about these issues with different group, I only thought it was right to indicate that it was part of our decision making and planning but we will be released details on Friday.

>> Just on the advice that you got from the group of epidemiologists versus the Ministry of Health, what was the modelling from each group on how many extra cases would come at level four versus level 3.

>> So it is very hard to model compliance is what I have been told.

What we have beening looking at is what the R value t reproductive value is looking like currently, and of course what we have said, and I said this last week, an R value that is closer to one means it is more likely that we will have a lower number of cases, even in the future when we are more highly vaccinated and looking to ease restrictions.

It will make it easier for us to maintain low levels of cases.

That is the goal.

The R value has trended, I think, previously we were looking between 1.

3 and 1.

4, it is looking like it has come down more recently, I will let Dr Bloomfield speak to that.

I received models that has two different R values at the moment so it can be a little difficult to find the pathway through.

They tend to - they are tending between 1.

2 and 1.

3 at the moment but some R values are a little lower than that at the moment.

>> Which R value for which level/

>> As I have said, the modelling compliance and then the likely R value out of 4 versus 3 is quite difficult.

>> Do you have any advice on when a level four would have lower ed that R value/

>> That is correct, and when we tack about getting advice from epidemiologists and the experts, most of that advice comes through the media.

And so the views are well known.

The modelling can model what the trajectory might be with the current number of cases and depending on different R values.

But what the modelling can't show is what the impact of the current settings or alert level four might be on that R value.

So that is much more a judgment and that is where, indeed, we canvass the views of a range of people, including our colleagues on the ground.

>> Just to add to what Dr Bloomfield has said, we did have a session where we have canvassed some of the future framework with public health experts and epidemiologists as part of that.

We did talk about the current outbreak in Auckland and they did offer up views as part of that as well.

So that was last week.

>> Surely not having 280,000 people go to work, which is the different between level 3 and level 4, is going to reduce.

Keep in mind, as I have just said, some of the work that has come out of the team on the ground in Auckland has suggested that work sites have not been one of the bigger contributing factors to cases that we have seen in recent days.

In fact, as I have said, one of the bigger contributors can'tings to be households.

It doesn't mean to say we haven't seen cases in work sites, we have, but it is not the biggest contributing factor.

>>I will come to Derek in the front.

>> Can you tell us what the (inaudible) one two dose rates for the young Maoris.

>> You want the overall region.

: 12 to 14/

>> I don't have a specific - which age range/

>> 12 to 39.

>> 12 to 19, dose one in the Auckland region is 60%.

20 to 34, 58, 35 to.

And 65 of is 94.

There is all available publicly.

>> The last update is from Wednesday, is that correct.

>> Yep.

>> So if you had the young age group for Maori and.

>> And I will say that is from Thursday, 14 October.

>> They will be updating it today with all of - taking all the data from the weekend as well.

>> Do you have a view, then, of what that late needs to be for the young Maori Pacific age kids before restrictions can be safely lifted/

>> As we said, we are going to speak in more detail on some of these issues on Friday.

>> (Inaudible) first dose and then don't come back for a second one, do you expect that to narrow and are there efforts to reach out to those people/

(Inaudible) you need to get 1100% first dose.

>> That is right, if you wanted to reach 95 you would need 100% on first dose.

I was answering the question about if you were seeking 95% which has been recommendeddy some advocate, that you would need to have 100% first dose in order to reach 95% second dose.

>> I was.

>> That is absolutely correct to do so, that was merely an answer to a question.

>> To date it has been about 95, 96% follow through on that second dose, but that is using a specific cut off point and so it may be just some people have delayed that second dose beyond the cut off this is used.

But there is an active program which the Healthline is supporting in making phone calls out to those people whose second dose is overview, as it were, to get, to boost that second dose uptake.

>> On the level 4 issue, the expectation is that a level 4 lockdown might not make such a big difference because the people who are not following the rules in level 3 won't do it in level 4.

As the outbreak continues to grow elsewhere in Auckland and reaches tout the wider city, is there a chance that that changes a little bit and actually level four will.

dots >> Yes yeah, what I think it is fair to say we will always keep under remember view or settings and while that has been the decision today, we are going to do what we have always done and constantly look at what is occurring, what the outbreak is helping us what we can learn from the nature of the outbreak and if all of that data change, then the advice may well change.

But this is the advice that we have for now.

>> And Prime Minister, what I would say is talking to my counterpart, Dr Brendan Murphy in Australia last week, he said that it was really clear what the impact was of high vaccination levels in Sydney.

And the levels they have got there are just slightly ahead of what we have in Tamaki Makaurau, but he said it is very obvious the impact and he said the case numbers are dropping there.

>> Just a couple of questions.

Are there any COVID cases that have been announced today or yesterday that attended the protest on Saturday, and also is there any update on the 5 to 11-year-old age group vaccination eligibility/

>> So what we tend to do in our case reports is we will have proactive reporting from our team on the ground as to whether or not there is anything that is considered particularly high risk or of note.

I haven't had it recorded to me that there has been a case amongst protesters.

>> No, not as yell, and our great hope is that there aren't -- not at yet.

I would ask all of those people who were at those events or indeed any other social events over the weekend they have symptoms please get a test straightaway.

On the 5 to 11s, there is no real change.

The only country that has had an application, as far as I know so far, is the USA.

We are expected the data to be provided to Medsafe soon for an application to get approval for a vaccine for 5 to 11-year-olds and we will let you know as soon as that ises receiving.

>> That is a really important point to note that we cannot actively move on the issues in Pfizer submits data to us for consideration and they have not yet done that.

As soon as they have we will let you now.

>> Just on inflation today, were you concerned by that level/

>> It is not out of step with what we are seeing internationally.

I was just looking at the reports, of course, the US is at 5.

4%, Canada at 4.

1%.

So we can see the impact of COVID, particularly in New Zealand, the impact on supply chain, you have seen coming through and the increase that we have seen today.

>> Prime Minister, in terms of dots will that be targeted to industries or will that support depend on falls in revenue similar to the wage subsidies/

>> I am going to let Minister Robertson stick with sharing more information on Friday.

>> In terms of households, you have previously indicated that low-income households might receive some more income support.

>> Yeah, what I might do is see whether or not we could put a date on when we are likely to announce those because I am aware that we have signalled to you that that is coming.

Decisions have been made, so I will make sure that we set some dates and communicate them to you.

>> Can we assume that will be a fairly limited amount of financial support/

>> You assume that we continue to be quite targeted in trying to reach those households that need it the most.

>> Change of subject.

What is the current state of play in terms of the decision making on the Three Waters issues/

>> I will let minister Mahuta to make announcements on that as well.

Nothing further at this point.

>> They said that cabinet was considered today MiQ alternatives.

How quickly could Kiwis overseas be looking at shorter stays in quarantine/

>> We have always said that shortened stays and home isolation were and part of our reconnection plan for New Zealand to the world.

Of course the calculation for sus to continue with whatever changes we make to do that safely and in a considered way.

When we have further announcements to make there, we will.

>> Everything is kind of being brought forward, isolating in the community, that discrepancy is growing, so when can Kiwis come home.

>> It is fair to say that this outbreak has brought forward some of the plans we may have already had.

That doesn't mean to say that we don't don't to be really considered in the decision s that we make, make sure they make sense and also that we are operating safely.

We don't want to unnecessarily seed potential days in the community when we are still continuing to control and manage and reduce cases as much as we can, particularly in Tamaki Makaurau.

>> There are so few cases at the border, there are vastly more cases within the community.

>> I think we had five today/

Five today.

>> 60 in the community.

So you see there is a discrepancy and Kiwi s overseas are really stress.

If you had starter.

>> I am probably going to re- pet the answer I just gave.

>> Kiwis can come home by Christmas, be reunited.

>> I will repeat the same answer I have given.

As part of our reconnecting New Zealand work we are looking to shorten MiQ stays and we have been looking at self-isolation.

The outbreak in Auckland has brought forward a number of our other plans.

This is an area where we are actively considering as we speak, but top of mind for us when we do make changes will be safety and we will be very considered.

I don't have numbers for you today but it is something we are working on right now.

>> Prime Minister, as you continue vaccination and you are going to have to get more targeted about it (inaudible) what information do you have around what that other group is, because I know you been into the regions in the last couple of weeks, you were in Tamaki Makaurau at the end of last week.

Were you speaking to people there who were vaccine hesitant/

What are their reasons/

What sort of demographic are they.

>> That is a good question.

One thing I do say, we do seem to speak and there seems to go a jeanlise of Maori vaccination rates that don't take into account how high the vaccination rates are for the older Maori and I it is is important to acknowledge that because in Auckland alone it is 95% for our over 65s.

What am I hearing/

I am mattering that actually the majority of people who have not been vaccinated to date are not what people would characterise as anti-vaxx nation.

They have questions.

They have concerns and sometimes it will be based on incorrect information online.

It will be based on something that they have heard, and they are really just seeking an answer to some of that.

Once you have a conversation or connect them to someone who can answer those questions, that actually they will make that decision for themselves and their family.

That takes a really targeted approach.

It takes us actually finding those people, having the conversation, not waiting for them to come to us, so it is much more labour intensive.

>> (Inaudible) the Tamaki Makaurau midwives and there are about ten or 15 or them who are not going to get vaccinated out of 63, so 15% of them or something.

So when you have people in a community who are work ing who are educated, highly skilled, what do you do about that/

Because they are going to be the difficult group, aren't they >> And I think you do what we have done, say for those high- risk areas where we need to protect a mother giving birth deserves to know they are doing it that in a safe environment, so we can do what we can to protect people in those vulnerable environments and we are doing that with the vaccine mandates we are rolling out.

And secondly we have to create a space where people can ask questions I know people are getting to a point where they just want people vaccinated.

Please still be willing to have a conversation with people, because that is how you move them.

Putting up a wall and being unwilling to have that discussion makes it really hard.

>> It is easy to record how many teachers and health workers haven't vaccinate and who they are and are go you going to do specific targeting to reach those people/

>> Obviously so we - health providers do know who are unvaccinated and we are careful with that information and who has access to it but they do and they can do targeted work with those different groups.

There will be an ability to know with education because of course we have a vaccine mandate there.

>> I am going to run down to the last sets of question, I will come to those who haven't had that many if I a can.

>> How concerned are you about the 4.

9% inflation rate and what the government going to do to try to control it/

>> Yeah, as I have already said, what we are seeing here in New Zealand very similar to what other countries are experiencing.

It is not considered necessarily to be a long-term position for New Zealand.

A lot being driven here by, for instance, some of our supply chain issues that are actually being experienced globally because of COVID-19.

So it is something that you can expect over time to resolve itself.

>> Nothing that you cans do a the government to kind of control it/

>> Well, again, for things like what is happening with shipping costs and constraint s there or global oil prices are will limits to what we can do there.

>> On that issue, the low- income households are disproportionately affected by higher inflation, and get tock this point where we have higher inflation, low-income households were again affected because they didn't benefit from the asset inflation.

So they were hit last year, now they have hit this year as inflation goes up.

How are you factors in that situation into the policy makes just more broadly that >> That implies that a focus on row-income households would be a shift or a response to inflation, whereas actually we have long heard a policy approach which that has been about trying to lift specifically the incomes of those who currently have the lowest wages in the country.

We have been trying to leverage that up, be it through, the levers that we have, minimum wage, through as an employer ourselves, through some of the targets tax credit regimes with we have and we will continue to do that because we are very focussed on the cost of Lynth living for our low-income households.

>> I # Dr Bloom bloom are there any pregnant - Dr Bloomfield are there any pregnant women in hospital at the moment with COVID-19 and if so they are unvaccinated/

>> Not that I am aware of but I will go away and check that for you just to be certain about that.

What I would say is that, not speaking necessarily for pregnant women, that very few of our hospitalised cases during this outbreak have been fully vaccinated.

The vast majority have been understood vaccinated but we will find out the answer to that specifically.

>> Dr Bloomfield, as an opportunity for a public service announcement, some of the stats out of the United States around or even Australia, around hospitalised pregnant women has been pretty devastating.

>> There is no doubt that the vaccine is very safe in pregnancy at any point in time and not only affords protection to the pregnant person, but also some protection through the placenta to the infant as well, inute row and they carry that through post birth.

My strong encouragement here in New Zealand is for pregnant women to talk to their health professional and to strongly consider getting vaccinated.

>> We say that because as you say one of the things I picked up whilst being out on the road is people have been waiting to have their babies before being vaccinated.

Whilst I am really pleased that those individuals been safe in that intervening period of time, it would have been devastating if they had COVID before they were vaccinated because the outcomes with reseeing and the hospitalisations and the severe illness in pregnant women is awful.

>> Jenna, Ben and then I will finish on Bernard.

>> That alert level review that is happening in two weeks for Auckland, will that include the boundary around Auckland or is the boundary intact until Auckland gets down to level 2 or until there is.

>> We haven't been so definitive about it as to say it will remain until X point, but what we are doing is work to see how we can safely allow Aucklanders to, you know, continue movement safely.

So that is a piece of work that we are doing, regardless, regardless of what happens with the boundary.

>> Will be that on the table in two weeks or is ate longer piece of work/

>>That something that we want to do so if for instance there is reason to continue with the boundary, we can have greater safe greater movement.

I do highlight safe because I know there is a lot of an sigh any parts of the country where there might be low vaccination rates and I want to be really clear that we are working very hard to ensure that whatever we do isn't posing risks to other parts of the country but also acknowledging there is lots of needs for talk Landers to move around.

At the moment the reasons they can is very limited.

>> (Inaudible).

>>That is not something we have considered but we are doing work to just regard opposition of what happens that we are ready with options.

>> You have resisted setting a vaccine target until now and your government has ridicules opponent s who has set vaccine targets.

>> I don't think I ridicule anyone.

>> Ministers have derided several, why is it now the right time to do this/

>> I would be loath to see that we have a point where we keep vaccinating and then people think, job done.

Job is not done until every person has, in my mind, until we have tried to reach every single person and we have them vaccinated, because it is the way we can keep them safe.

So what we are trying to do, though, is give greater certainty to Auckland and New Zealand about what the future looks like in a highly vaccinated environment.

So that naturally lends itself to saying here is when we believe we can start make some changes to our system.

It is not the idea you can suddenly cut lose and you don't have anything in place, not at all.

We still need to be careful but it is about talking about milestones for when we can make mixed moves.

>> On planning for the summer, what advice would you give for people who are getting close to drop dead dates for booking travel and family holidays and all those festival organisers, they must be right on the edge of saying that is it.

>> I talked to some of those and have a bit of a sense of the points they have to make decisions and we are very mindful of those.

As I say, one of the reasons we are on Friday looking to set out this framework and a sense of when we believe we will be able to make transitions is to try help with some of that planning as much as we can.

>> Has Pfizer relied to Medsafe for the use of a booster shot/

>> Not yet but we are expecting that and we are planning apace to assure that once that application comes through and goes through the approval process and cabinet agrees, then we are in a position both with the vaccine and the program to start delivering a booster shot.

>> Is it more like the original Pfizer approval process and the time that took, or is it more like expanding to a new age group, that one seems to go through.

>> It is more like the latter.

In a sense they are asking for a revision of the original approval process to add in that third dose as a booster.

>> The reason that age range decision took a little longer, obviously Pfizer went through Medsafe, Medsafe turned it around quickly and then it went through our technical advisory group and that group spent quite some time considering it.

That was the process.

I feel like I believe I called Mark the last question.

>> (Inaudible) will you have the same caveats for the vaccine.

What do you mean by vaccine caveats.

>> Do they have to have the high.

>> This is another attempt to extract information that we will be sharing on Friday and I will stick to that.

Jenna you can blame Derek for the fast that I am now calling time.

>> (Inaudible) >> Mr Robertson will give more details about the work we are doing on Friday.