The Medical Training Board's Annual Report for 2008 discusses the influences on demand for health services (demography, epidemiology, standards of care and provider productivity), and proposes a model for forecasting future medical workforce needs.
Part 1 of this paper sets out the various influences at work in New Zealand’s health system and the strong links between medical training and service delivery.
Part 2 of this paper presents statistical information relating to demography and medical workforce. Based on the work on this paper the Training Board has developed an initial view of the number of doctors New Zealand should consider training over the next few years.
The Training Board recognises that this model will need monitoring and refining over time to ensure the assumptions on which it is based are accurate.