Population projections

Year Māori Non-Māori
Males Females Total Males Females Total
Table 2: Projected populations by gender, Māori and non-Māori, 2015–2030 [1]
2015 346,850 365,110 711,960 1,895,375 1,972,195 3,867,570
2020 366,360 383,720 750,080 1,993,685 2,065,760 4,059,445
2025 386,210 402,780 788,990 2,079,415 2,149,520 4,228,935
2030 405,900 421,330 827,230 2,160,355 2,229,015 4,389,370

Table 2 shows that between 2015 and 2030, the Māori population is projected to grow by 16.2%, whereas the non-Māori population is projected to grow by only 13.5%. The Māori projected population has a slightly higher growth rate (an average annual increase of 1.0%) compared with the non-Māori projected population (an average annual increase of 0.8%).

There are a number of drivers of this higher population growth rate for Māori, including a higher fertility rate for Māori females. In 2014 the Māori total fertility rate [2] was 2.34 in 2014, compared with 1.92 for New Zealand (see Births and Deaths: Year ended December 2014, Statistics New Zealand).

Another factor is that the Māori population has a younger age structure, with a relatively large proportion in the main reproductive ages (15–44 years; see Figure 1). This provides built-in momentum for future population growth (see Māori Population: Looking out to 2021. Hui Taumata 2005; Statistics New Zealand).

Population by DHB

Tables 3a and 3b presents the Māori and non-Māori populations of each DHB, by life-cycle age group. A map showing the proportion of each DHB’s population that is Māori follows as Figure 3.

DHB 0–14 years 15–24 years 25–44 years 45–64 years 65+ years Total
Table 3a: DHB populations by life-cycle age group, Māori, 2013 [3]
Northland 15,138 6888 9723 9738 3441 44,928
Waitemata 15,942 8634 11,613 8238 1875 46,302
Auckland 8820 6255 8751 6159 1554 31,542
Counties Manukau 24,408 12,399 16,317 11,799 3009 67,944
Waikato 25,374 13,530 17,850 13,446 3855 74,049
Lakes 10,455 5298 7488 6270 1932 31,440
Bay of Plenty 16,011 7584 11,100 9456 3126 47,277
Tairāwhiti 6429 3114 4545 4146 1446 19,683
Taranaki 6447 3015 4416 3282 1005 18,165
Hawke’s Bay 12,144 5808 8154 6765 2106 34,977
Whanganui 4641 2436 3291 2889 900 14,151
MidCentral 9876 5379 6678 4977 1425 28,347
Hutt Valley 7140 3717 5532 3960 861 21,213
Capital & Coast 8943 5910 7671 5013 1215 28,749
Wairarapa 2223 1155 1416 1197 375 6360
Nelson Marlborough 4263 2085 2919 2430 687 12,384
West Coast 1053 531 729 672 189 3171
Canterbury 12,705 7377 9660 6597 1635 37,971
South Canterbury 1416 648 894 672 213 3843
Southern 8889 5244 6192 4440 1323 26,085
DHB 0–14 years 15–24 years 25–44 years 45–64 years 65+ years Total
Table 3b: DHB populations by life-cycle age group, non-Māori, 2013 [3]
Northland 17,610 9795 21,258 33,774 24,324 106,764
Waitemata 92,049 63,111 130,923 126,564 66,609 479,256
Auckland 70,182 64,059 129,363 96,465 44,736 404,802
Counties Manukau 88,698 58,455 107,019 99,945 47,235 401,349
Waikato 52,212 36,879 69,822 77,178 49,167 285,261
Lakes 11,727 6942 16,035 19,422 12,624 66,747
Bay of Plenty 27,513 15,870 34,908 45,414 35,025 158,718
Tairāwhiti 4302 2439 5442 7113 4680 23,970
Taranaki 16,722 9918 22,212 25,929 16,812 91,590
Hawke’s Bay 20,862 12,255 25,764 34,410 23,421 116,718
Whanganui 7782 4863 9597 13,680 10,038 45,969
MidCentral 22,956 18,330 30,849 36,630 25,464 134,217
Hutt Valley 22,011 14,331 31,161 32,103 17,562 117,165
Capital & Coast 44,193 39,069 74,793 64,062 32,838 254,955
Wairarapa 5928 3387 7224 10,719 7485 34,752
Nelson Marlborough 21,663 11,943 27,993 38,226 24,789 124,611
West Coast 5097 2976 6714 9195 4992 28,977
Canterbury 77,562 59,268 114,753 122,061 70,557 444,207
South Canterbury 8718 5415 10,977 15,531 11,130 51,783
Southern 45,510 40,113 66,177 74,241 45,300 271,338

Figure 3: Proportion of DHB population that is Māori, 2013 [3]


1. Notes:

  • Due to rounding, individual figures in this table do not add to give the stated totals.
  • Prioritised ethnicity has been used – see Ngā tapuae me ngā raraunga: Methods and data sources for further information.
  • Māori figures are series 6 projections based on the 2013 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality, medium annual net migration and medium inter-ethnic mobility. Non-Māori figures are derived from national series 5 projections based on the 2013 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000. The two series are designed to be directly comparable.

Source: Statistics New Zealand


2. The total fertility rate is the average number of live births that a women would have during her life if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates of a given period (usually a year). It excludes the effect of mortality.


3. Notes:

Source: Statistics New Zealand

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