Year | Māori | Non-Māori | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Males | Females | Total | Males | Females | Total | |
2015 | 346,850 | 365,110 | 711,960 | 1,895,375 | 1,972,195 | 3,867,570 |
2020 | 366,360 | 383,720 | 750,080 | 1,993,685 | 2,065,760 | 4,059,445 |
2025 | 386,210 | 402,780 | 788,990 | 2,079,415 | 2,149,520 | 4,228,935 |
2030 | 405,900 | 421,330 | 827,230 | 2,160,355 | 2,229,015 | 4,389,370 |
Table 2 shows that between 2015 and 2030, the Māori population is projected to grow by 16.2%, whereas the non-Māori population is projected to grow by only 13.5%. The Māori projected population has a slightly higher growth rate (an average annual increase of 1.0%) compared with the non-Māori projected population (an average annual increase of 0.8%).
There are a number of drivers of this higher population growth rate for Māori, including a higher fertility rate for Māori females. In 2014 the Māori total fertility rate [2] was 2.34 in 2014, compared with 1.92 for New Zealand (see Births and Deaths: Year ended December 2014, Statistics New Zealand).
Another factor is that the Māori population has a younger age structure, with a relatively large proportion in the main reproductive ages (15–44 years; see Figure 1). This provides built-in momentum for future population growth (see Māori Population: Looking out to 2021. Hui Taumata 2005; Statistics New Zealand).
Population by DHB
Tables 3a and 3b presents the Māori and non-Māori populations of each DHB, by life-cycle age group. A map showing the proportion of each DHB’s population that is Māori follows as Figure 3.
DHB | 0–14 years | 15–24 years | 25–44 years | 45–64 years | 65+ years | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northland | 15,138 | 6888 | 9723 | 9738 | 3441 | 44,928 |
Waitemata | 15,942 | 8634 | 11,613 | 8238 | 1875 | 46,302 |
Auckland | 8820 | 6255 | 8751 | 6159 | 1554 | 31,542 |
Counties Manukau | 24,408 | 12,399 | 16,317 | 11,799 | 3009 | 67,944 |
Waikato | 25,374 | 13,530 | 17,850 | 13,446 | 3855 | 74,049 |
Lakes | 10,455 | 5298 | 7488 | 6270 | 1932 | 31,440 |
Bay of Plenty | 16,011 | 7584 | 11,100 | 9456 | 3126 | 47,277 |
Tairāwhiti | 6429 | 3114 | 4545 | 4146 | 1446 | 19,683 |
Taranaki | 6447 | 3015 | 4416 | 3282 | 1005 | 18,165 |
Hawke’s Bay | 12,144 | 5808 | 8154 | 6765 | 2106 | 34,977 |
Whanganui | 4641 | 2436 | 3291 | 2889 | 900 | 14,151 |
MidCentral | 9876 | 5379 | 6678 | 4977 | 1425 | 28,347 |
Hutt Valley | 7140 | 3717 | 5532 | 3960 | 861 | 21,213 |
Capital & Coast | 8943 | 5910 | 7671 | 5013 | 1215 | 28,749 |
Wairarapa | 2223 | 1155 | 1416 | 1197 | 375 | 6360 |
Nelson Marlborough | 4263 | 2085 | 2919 | 2430 | 687 | 12,384 |
West Coast | 1053 | 531 | 729 | 672 | 189 | 3171 |
Canterbury | 12,705 | 7377 | 9660 | 6597 | 1635 | 37,971 |
South Canterbury | 1416 | 648 | 894 | 672 | 213 | 3843 |
Southern | 8889 | 5244 | 6192 | 4440 | 1323 | 26,085 |
DHB | 0–14 years | 15–24 years | 25–44 years | 45–64 years | 65+ years | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northland | 17,610 | 9795 | 21,258 | 33,774 | 24,324 | 106,764 |
Waitemata | 92,049 | 63,111 | 130,923 | 126,564 | 66,609 | 479,256 |
Auckland | 70,182 | 64,059 | 129,363 | 96,465 | 44,736 | 404,802 |
Counties Manukau | 88,698 | 58,455 | 107,019 | 99,945 | 47,235 | 401,349 |
Waikato | 52,212 | 36,879 | 69,822 | 77,178 | 49,167 | 285,261 |
Lakes | 11,727 | 6942 | 16,035 | 19,422 | 12,624 | 66,747 |
Bay of Plenty | 27,513 | 15,870 | 34,908 | 45,414 | 35,025 | 158,718 |
Tairāwhiti | 4302 | 2439 | 5442 | 7113 | 4680 | 23,970 |
Taranaki | 16,722 | 9918 | 22,212 | 25,929 | 16,812 | 91,590 |
Hawke’s Bay | 20,862 | 12,255 | 25,764 | 34,410 | 23,421 | 116,718 |
Whanganui | 7782 | 4863 | 9597 | 13,680 | 10,038 | 45,969 |
MidCentral | 22,956 | 18,330 | 30,849 | 36,630 | 25,464 | 134,217 |
Hutt Valley | 22,011 | 14,331 | 31,161 | 32,103 | 17,562 | 117,165 |
Capital & Coast | 44,193 | 39,069 | 74,793 | 64,062 | 32,838 | 254,955 |
Wairarapa | 5928 | 3387 | 7224 | 10,719 | 7485 | 34,752 |
Nelson Marlborough | 21,663 | 11,943 | 27,993 | 38,226 | 24,789 | 124,611 |
West Coast | 5097 | 2976 | 6714 | 9195 | 4992 | 28,977 |
Canterbury | 77,562 | 59,268 | 114,753 | 122,061 | 70,557 | 444,207 |
South Canterbury | 8718 | 5415 | 10,977 | 15,531 | 11,130 | 51,783 |
Southern | 45,510 | 40,113 | 66,177 | 74,241 | 45,300 | 271,338 |
Figure 3: Proportion of DHB population that is Māori, 2013 [3]
- Due to rounding, individual figures in this table do not add to give the stated totals.
- Prioritised ethnicity has been used – see Ngā tapuae me ngā raraunga: Methods and data sources for further information.
- Māori figures are series 6 projections based on the 2013 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality, medium annual net migration and medium inter-ethnic mobility. Non-Māori figures are derived from national series 5 projections based on the 2013 Census, and assume medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000. The two series are designed to be directly comparable.
Source: Statistics New Zealand
2. The total fertility rate is the average number of live births that a women would have during her life if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates of a given period (usually a year). It excludes the effect of mortality.
- Due to rounding, individual figures in these tables do not add to give the stated totals.
- Prioritised ethnicity has been used – see Ngā tapuae me ngā raraunga: Methods and data sources for further information.
Source: Statistics New Zealand