Between 2011 and 2026, the older Māori population is predicted to grow by 7.1 percent (Table 4), whereas the older non-Māori population is predicted to grow by only 3.3 percent. The increase in the older Māori population is driven by growth in the 65+ years age group, among whom the number of Māori is predicted to increase by 121.8 percent, compared to an increase of 60.3 percent for non-Māori aged 65+ years.
This means that in 2026 Māori are predicted to comprise 9.5 percent of the older people’s population – up from 6.8 percent in 2006.
Source: National ethnic population projections, Statistics New Zealand
Māori figures are series 6 projections based on the 2006 Census and assume medium fertility, medium mortality, medium annual net migration and medium inter-ethnic mobility. Non-Māori figures are derived from national series 5 projections based on the 2006 Census and assume medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000. The two series are designed to be directly comparable.
Due to rounding, individual figures in this table do not sum to give the stated totals and may differ slightly from other published figures.