Population projections (50+ years)

Between 2011 and 2026, the older Māori population is predicted to grow by 7.1 percent (Table 4), whereas the older non-Māori population is predicted to grow by only 3.3 percent. The increase in the older Māori population is driven by growth in the 65+ years age group, among whom the number of Māori is predicted to increase by 121.8 percent, compared to an increase of 60.3 percent for non-Māori aged 65+ years.

This means that in 2026 Māori are predicted to comprise 9.5 percent of the older people’s population – up from 6.8 percent in 2006.

How to interpret results – tables

Table 4: Projected populations, Māori and non-Māori aged 50+ years, by gender, 2011–26
  Māori non-Māori
Year Males Females Total Males Females Total
2011 51,360 58,690 110,050 606,660 667,740 1,274,400
2016 62,040 72,260 134,300 682,020 751,330 1,433,350
2021 71,860 85,440 157,300 747,345 830,360 1,577,705
2026 80,470 97,430 177,900 797,970 896,380 1,694,350

Source: National ethnic population projections, Statistics New Zealand

Notes:
Māori figures are series 6 projections based on the 2006 Census and assume medium fertility, medium mortality, medium annual net migration and medium inter-ethnic mobility. Non-Māori figures are derived from national series 5 projections based on the 2006 Census and assume medium fertility, medium mortality and long-term annual net migration of 10,000. The two series are designed to be directly comparable.
Due to rounding, individual figures in this table do not sum to give the stated totals and may differ slightly from other published figures.

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