South Korea to adopt New Zealand’s Medical Workforce Forecasting Model

News article

17 October 2017

Researchers from the Korean Academy of Medical Sciences visited the Ministry of Health recently to study its Medical Workforce Forecasting Model.

The model is used to scientifically forecast the workforce needs for medical specialists.

Health Workforce New Zealand Group Manager Claire Austin says the forecasting model contributes to planning and investment in the current and future workforce.

“We’re also embarking on needs-based workforce planning, which captures people and community health need, and are working with the sector to develop future, innovative models of care."

The model won first prize at the Data Olympics held at the International Health Workforce Collaborative late last year in Washington DC.

The model has already been studied by health agencies in the US, UK and Canada.

The Korean researchers want to replicate the model and use Korean data. The Ministry makes the model available free of charge, as long as an acknowledgement to the Ministry of Health is made.

(Third from left) Pictured in Wellington, Emmanuel Jo from the Ministry of Health with (from left) JiWoo Kim, SooJeung Choi, DongWoon Han and ChunHee Kim from the Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.
(Third from left) Pictured in Wellington, Emmanuel Jo from the Ministry of Health with (from left) JiWoo Kim, SooJeung Choi, DongWoon Han and ChunHee Kim from the Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Health Workforce New Zealand Analytics Manager, Emmanuel Jo, says the model takes workforce data and can make adjustments for a range of factors.

“These include age of the workforce, the training pipelines and population changes.”

In New Zealand, the model has been applied to the GP workforce, nursing and midwifery workforces, psychologists, medical laboratory staff, anaesthetists and other medical specialists.

The model has been tested against what actually happened in past years and has been found to be 98 percent accurate for GP workforce projections in the past.

The model is continuing to be evolved in response to questions about the medical workforce.

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